{"id":15817,"date":"2025-05-13T14:57:15","date_gmt":"2025-05-13T12:57:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sayagency.com\/magazine\/news\/marketing-mix-modeling-un-percorso-verso-la-consapevolezza\/"},"modified":"2025-09-05T14:46:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-05T12:46:08","slug":"marketing-mix-modeling-un-percorso-verso-la-consapevolezza","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sayagency.com\/en\/marketing-mix-modeling-a-journey-towards-awareness\/","title":{"rendered":"Marketing Mix Modeling: a Journey Towards Awareness"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-924166de9db6ee630e0bc2fadb159d16\"><em>By <a href=\"https:\/\/sayagency.com\/en\/people\/adv-team\/alberto-narenti\/\">Alberto Narenti<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-bed1a10522f75982ae9101b389b46836\"><strong>Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM)<\/strong> is a methodology created to quantify the contribution of each marketing channel to business objectives, such as sales, in-store traffic, and customer acquisition.<br>In the past, MMM was mainly used to analyze television and print advertising, but today it has become an indispensable tool for companies operating in a multi-channel ecosystem and in an increasingly privacy-first regulatory context.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-9ea9de3557edab6b4469dff93e6affdc\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-8ca6c7d2b86b18a6202786bd0f46614f\">In recent years, the return to MMM has been driven by three main factors:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-b174e37bd9e6c26de0dc8da86e99a891\" style=\"background-color:#f9f9f9\"><strong>The end of third-party cookies<\/strong> and restrictions on user data collection.<br><br><strong>The growing complexity of the media mix<\/strong>, with the integration of many different digital channels, influencer marketing, and retail media.<br><br><strong>The advancement of AI and Machine Learning<\/strong>, which have made MMM models more accurate and granular.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-44f6608bfde9cae3daae168a57a59b46\">Why is it important to talk about it? Because every company doing digital marketing today should adopt this methodology in order to optimize its investments and improve its reporting capabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"toc-service-section vertical-padded\" id=\"toc-service-section-97c37223f9311277913e353a172b6990\">\n    <div class=\"container\">\n        <div class=\"toc-wrapper\">\n            <div class=\"col\">\n                                    <div class=\"toc-title title\"><p>What we will discuss in this article:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n                            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"col\">\n                                    <div class=\"toc-content text typography\"><ol>\n<li><a href=\"#history-MMM\">The History of Marketing Mix Modeling<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#process-CRISP-DM\">The CRISP-DM Process applied to MMM<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#Multi-Touch-Attribution\">MMM and Multi-Touch Attribution are complementary, not alternatives<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#fundamental-elements-MMM\">The Fundamental Elements of MMM<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#models-Robyn-Meridian\">Advanced Models: Robyn and Meridian<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#pills-MMM\">Marketing Mix Modeling Pills: rules to remember<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n                            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color has-x-large-font-size wp-elements-a41a2646937ea70d4e4b7355d30969da\" id=\"history-MMM\" style=\"color:#659a8b\">The History of Marketing Mix Modeling<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-2fc948eca0ee8d8a73b840d14ec6fbd8\"><strong>Marketing Mix Modeling<\/strong> was born in the <strong>1960s<\/strong> as a tool to evaluate the effectiveness of advertising campaigns through the analysis of sales and other business data. Between the 1980s and 1990s, it became a standard in the world of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-9ea9de3557edab6b4469dff93e6affdc\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-4d8296e7fb948a5356d5dc36fe2d3cf1\">In the 2000s, with the advent of digital, MMM lost centrality in favor of multi-touch attribution (MTA), which promised a more granular measurement of the user journey. However, with new privacy regulations and the increasing fragmentation of the media mix, MMM has regained relevance in recent years, adapting to new contexts thanks to the use of machine learning and causal analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color has-x-large-font-size wp-elements-d256b5e31188d70460d0efa2b9557cce\" id=\"process-CRISP-DM\" style=\"color:#659a8b\">The CRISP-DM Process applied to MMM<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-c332d09e00a365cc46d03fa1186c1686\">To structure a Marketing Mix Modeling project effectively, the <strong>CRISP-DM<\/strong> framework <strong>(Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining)<\/strong> can be adopted, a consolidated method in the data analysis sector. This is a very important framework because without method there is a risk of making gross errors, or even worse, abandoning the path because one gets lost in the labyrinth of complexity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-793478f56a5d82bccaa88ec4386bab9f\">The 6 phases of the CRISP-DM process:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-84971b69c38918694c7ef716d7697173\"><strong>Business Understanding<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Definition of objectives: what do we want to measure? Sales, brand awareness, lead generation?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Identification of the marketing variables to analyze.<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-8048fb7101c9fd8b962950ea7a2e4473\"><strong>Data Understanding<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Collection of data sources: CRM, sales data, advertising investments, market trends.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Exploratory analysis to identify patterns and correlations.<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-f33c4ec24517f73aa9238185619382f4\"><strong>Data Preparation<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Cleaning and normalization of data.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Creation of variables for the model (e.g., adstock, seasonality, promotions).<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-69e5c0392e4c636f145d2d45d3cbe1f5\"><strong>Modeling<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Choice of statistical technique: multiple regression, Bayesian models, machine learning.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Model training on historical data.<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-5f1d2691ebdd12398a06e2594616b1d1\"><strong>Evaluation<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Comparison of model results with real data.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Validation through incremental tests (e.g., geo-experiment).<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-76668ea8b4d40ff317da4953d46a4e17\"><strong>Deployment and Optimizationone<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Application of the model to marketing decisions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">Periodic updates to improve accuracy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color has-x-large-font-size wp-elements-8c9a707875dc71192f82f240998d46f1\" id=\"Multi-Touch-Attribution\" style=\"color:#659a8b\">MMM and Multi-Touch Attribution are complementary, not alternatives<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-c049f1bb77ec022e2457ab65a80e3279\">One of the most common mistakes is to think that Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) can replace Multi-Touch Attribution (MTA). In reality, the two approaches serve different purposes and should be used together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table has-medium-font-size\"><table class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>MMM<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Multi-Touch Attribution (MTA)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Analyzes aggregated data<\/td><td>Analyzes user-level data<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Great for long-term strategic decisions<\/td><td>Great for short-term tactical optimizations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Measures the impact of all channels, including offline<\/td><td>Measures only digitally traceable channels<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Not affected by the loss of cookies and user data<\/td><td>Increasingly limited by the lack of user data<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-7db959ab973dc16a40c3b84089088da8\">So, <strong>what is the best approach?<\/strong> Take the best from each: <strong>use MMM for strategic decisions and MTA for daily optimizations.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color has-x-large-font-size wp-elements-72f3446e65432f56006069b191c05f91\" id=\"fundamental-elements-MMM\" style=\"color:#659a8b\">The Fundamental Elements of MMM<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-5ce080f0d4c662f213490487cc73347a\">To obtain reliable results, MMM uses key concepts such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-033a091038b77a137f74cee09aec29fa\"><strong>Adstock<\/strong>: measures the delayed effect of advertising.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-4f7c83e9e5ea15de4bfc98e8d0fc750e\"><strong>Saturation<\/strong>: identifies the point beyond which further investments no longer generate value.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-061a4a2bf7ac0feb525f3f22301b40d8\"><strong>Adstock <\/strong>can be modeled with different mathematical functions, including:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-94088a76da1b1f37611a9dd430d624eb\"><strong>Exponential Decay<\/strong> \u2013 <strong>Classic model<\/strong>, assumes that each day the effect of advertising decreases by a fixed percentage. Formula:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-def824940ddefb17fcd99134d6e18eb8\"><em>Adstockt=Spesat+\u03bb\u00d7Adstockt\u22121Adstock_t = Spesa_t + \\lambda \\times Adstock_{t-1}Adstockt\u200b=Spesat\u200b+\u03bb\u00d7Adstockt\u22121<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-small-font-size wp-elements-cd3c03455cf61756e1131ea2a7f0ae6d\"><br>Where \u03bb\\lambda\u03bb is the decay factor (between 0 and 1).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-41ad9f5dfbab19e5db3e798e907e1086\"><strong>Weibull Decay (Robyn and other advanced models) <\/strong>\u2013 More flexible model, allows modeling both slow dispersion and stronger delayed effect. The decay follows a Weibull distribution function, which better adapts to long-lasting advertising phenomena.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-dbe268aa92ac3b4c6faf3e4380ddcb61\"><strong>Custom carryover models <\/strong>\u2013 Use machine learning techniques to dynamically estimate adstock for each channel.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-c8be067231143fe6f3684c9fbe7dcda0\">One of the most common mistakes in marketing strategies is to believe that increasing the budget always produces proportional results. In reality, there is a point beyond which advertising effectiveness decreases: this phenomenon is known as the saturation effect.<br>How to calculate it? Thanks to Saturation models:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-dc6e46dabdd15636b7efb50a2ea00ad3\"><strong>Exponential Saturation<\/strong> \u2013 Follows a curve that shows decreasing returns as spending increases. Formula:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXeVRLeO5p8tvGorAftdcQM0yRzJgh91q-a8aZemAF2XH7x6Ik5lGOC5i-pXi3-CgwCcitxLNznTYxYUifBTTIasSbsl6AbEQ_YwPowS9oL1Phx2GUXYhrkj7fqc_elRocw_3R0F?key=lHCOVzeMxy2EB0n8Pjgs0fhF\" alt=\"\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Where \u03b1\\alpha\u03b1 determines the saturation rate.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-a93dae71ac51d2b4e999905085af78e9\">Hill Curve (S-shape) (model used by Robyn and Meridian) \u2013 More realistic model, simulates a threshold behavior: the impact of advertising initially grows, then stabilizes. Formula:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXeVRLeO5p8tvGorAftdcQM0yRzJgh91q-a8aZemAF2XH7x6Ik5lGOC5i-pXi3-CgwCcitxLNznTYxYUifBTTIasSbsl6AbEQ_YwPowS9oL1Phx2GUXYhrkj7fqc_elRocw_3R0F?key=lHCOVzeMxy2EB0n8Pjgs0fhF\" alt=\"\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The parameter \u03b3\\gamma\u03b3 controls the curvature of saturation.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-66510af9ba413d8ee73285fad901807f\">An important aspect to keep in mind is that <strong>saturation is not simply a metric linked to the target or reach<\/strong>, nor is it an immutable metric over time. On the contrary, <strong>by working on creativity and strategy it is possible to reduce it<\/strong> and make investments more efficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color has-x-large-font-size wp-elements-3c0aa785c6aa8640959109389bc5b1c9\" id=\"models-Robyn-Meridian\" style=\"color:#659a8b\">Advanced Models: Robyn and Meridian<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-7cc18969ed2d82fa56145caed9fc5f61\">In recent years, Machine Learning has greatly improved the accuracy of MMM. Today, for example, the two main advanced open-source models are:<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-c59eef9155bfe8623c2bf42c9f414378\"><strong>Robyn (Meta)<\/strong> \u2013 Employs Ridge regression, a linear regression technique that helps manage multicollinearity among independent variables and prevent overfitting, thus improving the predictive performance of Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) models.<br><strong>Automation<\/strong>: minimizes human intervention thanks to automatic variable selection.<br><strong>Advanced management of adstock and saturation:<\/strong> uses Hill and Weibull curves for better modeling.<br><strong>Validation through incremental tests:<\/strong> allows verifying the validity of models with experimental data.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-b1bd9420fd98e491950d7fedc194cf6c\"><strong>Meridian (Google)<\/strong> \u2013 Uses causal inference to analyze the true impact of marketing channels. The open-source framework for <strong>Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM)<\/strong> developed by Google uses a Bayesian causal inference approach. This probabilistic method combines prior knowledge with observed data to estimate the impact of marketing activities and quantify the uncertainty associated with forecasts.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color has-x-large-font-size wp-elements-95e9c0fb00538b0d1ec90d6f3800d1e3\" style=\"color:#659a8b\">What are these analyses practically used for?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-c28415bdbce67e1a8cbe9e5d70f11bf3\">We are often asked what these analyses are concretely useful for. The answers are multiple:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-9ea9de3557edab6b4469dff93e6affdc\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-large-font-size wp-elements-ba4472f5a70d718528f79b67908392db\">1. Measuring the efficiency of advertising channels<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-fb4dda1a3cb86a0360765037b9c4fdbd\">Let\u2019s evaluate a practical example. The chart below shows a comparison between spend share and effect share for different advertising channels. This type of visualization is fundamental in Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM), as it allows evaluating the effectiveness of each advertising platform relative to its contribution to business metrics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXeHeYZQoHgoxvf27DQmVboqU4HViR9LcV3IGMuhgE1NxMqWB3Jh7hONtFXx-w9vjjLzKt49ljjDjGwLil1n3tsovVnyE1yHPZ99JChAZTly_j4J8gSygnZ5UMUDZi_Hq_3DHP_MMw?key=lHCOVzeMxy2EB0n8Pjgs0fhF\" alt=\"\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-large-font-size wp-elements-99de13fc1694276a4a5087ef48f280db\">2. Evaluating the incrementality of advertising channels compared to exogenous factors<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-b1c84043e758fed90473a6a9c0aa7e00\">Another practical case, this chart instead shows the percentage contribution of different factors \u2013 both advertising and exogenous \u2013 relative to the overall result (for example, sales or conversions). This type of visualization is fundamental in Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM), as it allows quantifying how much each advertising channel and other external factors affect business performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXeZ-xWZNVhLKAUAG8kLQ_2eQmky8odWyyCSGF-wxJhMJ3F3MYbSk1_xHgWC5Qsn19JyIUBkdHktzRAZEoDrSVUKSNl049DSIZD1-5hAyzS0ZQE-rqHk7bKyG1LKDLBktwGAjcsKNw?key=lHCOVzeMxy2EB0n8Pjgs0fhF\" alt=\"\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-9ea9de3557edab6b4469dff93e6affdc\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-126f0b19aa645b08b51cdd6168636aa0\">Through this analysis, we can evaluate the efficiency of each advertising channel, separating the real effect of campaigns from the impacts due to seasonal trends, organic baseline, and holidays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-large-font-size wp-elements-d38f42933a2ecce864ce421ca4af0f47\">3. Calculating Adstock and Saturation for each channel<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXdZavT9l7n1M26EGyuQahbF97hDdRwE-c8Z2XMGkPuWfnmqAMmYQOCnAYPTZXHb_eyRgYoVOQsZOvrYwjqHbKFCsjWeKH7Guzq5-1BpbRsUoKxIj1JcaHhBDgmVMCrtxV3JkdYlew?key=lHCOVzeMxy2EB0n8Pjgs0fhF\" alt=\"\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-5e6f9fd06e6c8afa20c5e7b0ee691446\">Let\u2019s now see how this chart shows the delayed effect of advertising over time (adstock effect). This type of visualization is fundamental in Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM), as it allows evaluating how long an advertising action continues to influence user behavior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-9ea9de3557edab6b4469dff93e6affdc\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-5826a1e9378447bb28f8f68f600f1fb2\">In the example of the chart, the curve highlights that the <strong>maximum impact<\/strong> occurs around the fifth day, suggesting that advertising has a cumulative effect that grows over time before reaching its peak.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">The <strong>Half-Life concept<\/strong> represented in the chart indicates the point at which the advertising response is reduced to 50% of the maximum effect, allowing the estimation of how long it takes for the advertising effect to wear off.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-9c6d057303d950964621dd35dc8a4405\">This type of analysis is useful<strong> to optimize campaign frequency<\/strong>, avoiding excessive investments in periods when the advertising effect is still active.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXcj2V-mrAW3YZQGfqPk76Z6UgF6VdAcwHQITYHiKXYLMZnAiZIf7g1sRBTA7lJEHsp6UT5zLR7DvKJfpt2Sl0MT_ruUh9kXSCu-MKjhyT2jkhZEYIXXXv4NVSxQUpEdQeZd57WMiQ?key=lHCOVzeMxy2EB0n8Pjgs0fhF\" alt=\"\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-85b4954fd84cc6988c3dde4a3979ce6e\">The chart represents the relationship between daily advertising spending and revenues generated. This type of visualization is essential for Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM), as it allows evaluating the marginal effectiveness of advertising investment and identifying the optimal budget allocation point.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-7e43edb819f32f87a11a5d10527f233d\">The curve shows that as advertising spending increases, revenue grows, but with decreasing marginal returns.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">The Median Spend point marks the average investment threshold, providing a reference for testing budget variations.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">This chart is useful for analyzing advertising saturation, i.e., the level of spending beyond which further investments do not lead to a proportional increase in sales.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-19eb71d0c1349eab6c196b029b7334db\">It helps plan budget allocation scenarios, optimizing resource distribution on channels with the best incremental impact.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-large-font-size wp-elements-920de4a64e3369ca2e98ebea56c50cb5\">4. Future scenarios by making media budgets more efficient<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXcEnvQhHE9AySG8NrPPSj3-nuQ5jCPQWwTRkNCXJMucdXHql6P1GDSMumDVidaAR2cADFvyfaIqt1zRSb3kcD5l9kx8DW8wBSBzT4yHFQ8SlzAjqUoOke9JnwCjznT5T26_B0wK2Q?key=lHCOVzeMxy2EB0n8Pjgs0fhF\" alt=\"\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-fec8387c937b5ba0d7be66fcf224a10b\">The screenshot of the table above shows a <strong>comparison between the initial advertising spend and the optimized spend for different advertising channels<\/strong>, highlighting variations in ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) and daily budget. This type of visualization is <strong>fundamental in Marketing Mix Modeling <\/strong>(MMM), as it <strong>allows evaluating the efficiency of each advertising platform<\/strong> and<strong> identifying opportunities<\/strong> for budget reallocation to maximize investment returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-710c9060cc385fdef119f0cbef614e95\">The analysis clearly shows which channels could benefit from increased spending (such as Search, which shows significant ROAS growth with increased budget) and which instead are overspending (such as PMAX and other channels), which could be reduced to improve overall efficiency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-d93bee29783db08a49d46dc156de74db\">This analysis helps marketers optimize media budget distribution, avoiding waste and maximizing overall advertising strategy performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-4749de9da54cb7dfcab6f9c068d99260\">For example, from this forecast, an increase of \u20ac14,000 would lead to an increase of almost \u20ac90,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color has-x-large-font-size wp-elements-df5925995fdf741f06c721157c16b179\" id=\"pills-MMM\" style=\"color:#659a8b\">Marketing Mix Modeling Pills: rules to remember<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-large-font-size wp-elements-2dde9a35930fcabd16a9f1ef23a9bc1d\">MMM is a journey<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-b5ed9289ab25358cdce1e8266efdcd99\">Marketing Mix Modeling is not a static analysis, but an evolutionary process. It requires gradual implementation, based on historical data, incremental tests, and continuous optimizations. It is not enough to build a model and leave it unchanged: it is necessary to update it periodically to reflect changing market dynamics and consumer behavior. The goal is not only to measure the impact of advertising, but to create a data-driven culture within the company.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-9ea9de3557edab6b4469dff93e6affdc\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-large-font-size wp-elements-e75462e3db4af8b0dc778b17c19fa8bb\">Know yourself<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-2041a176c015e8be27bd221883117973\">Before adopting MMM, it is essential to <strong>understand your own business model and key KPIs<\/strong>. Not all advertising channels play the same role: some generate direct conversions, others work on brand awareness and consideration. MMM helps answer questions such as: Where is my investment going? Which channels are really influencing my business? How much do discounts impact sales? But to obtain precise answers, one must start from a clear framework of objectives and metrics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-large-font-size wp-elements-86981abda049d538f05e38a494a915b6\">MMM and KPIs must speak the same language<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-9ea9de3557edab6b4469dff93e6affdc\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-e19f34fd4711712b5709145036f7aef2\">One of the most common mistakes in MMM is to use metrics that are not aligned with business objectives. For example, optimizing a model based only on sales could lead to underestimating channels with a strong impact on brand equity. It is essential to build a model that takes into account all funnel stages, from impressions to conversions, in order to have a complete view of advertising impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-9ea9de3557edab6b4469dff93e6affdc\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-large-font-size wp-elements-fa01d6859d80d10367fd663e07d8592b\">Average saturation is your enemy, efficiency is your goal<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-18b6ad4d757e27a36b564abe378152c8\">Each advertising channel has a <strong>saturation point<\/strong>, beyond which further investments do not bring proportional benefits. MMM helps identify the optimal investment level for each channel, avoiding budget waste. Identifying the saturation point allows redistributing investments more efficiently, maximizing return. (Let\u2019s remember, however, that creativity and strategy can help).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-large-font-size wp-elements-c18515a82a953765190d1d0b71282dfc\">It\u2019s not just about channels, but about context<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-96cd69193028178dd167ae6d9e5c3ddb\">Advertising effectiveness does not depend only on the chosen channel, but also on external factors such as seasonality, market events, macroeconomic trends. MMM takes these variables into account (if entered), helping to distinguish the real effects of advertising campaigns from those influenced by industry dynamics. This allows more accurate forecasts and the ability to adapt strategy based on future scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-large-font-size wp-elements-d91b72ea45d2f5d908b153001fa8a714\">Experiment<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-c9b098ce2123963c509b94d8b1b2bd22\">MMM is not just an exercise in passive analysis, but an experimental approach. Budget simulations, A\/B tests, and incremental experiments are fundamental to validate model hypotheses. A good approach to MMM requires a culture of continuous testing: Which changes in media mix lead to improved ROAS? Which channels can be scaled down without impacting performance? Only by testing is it possible to obtain concrete answers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-large-font-size wp-elements-6ca5293bc20759f6dc86552f125aba6b\">At SAY we do not just measure the past, we build the future<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-824fdae3c09aa0e75cee2ac9dfd82a66\">MMM is not only useful to understand what worked in the past, but above all to plan the future. Thanks to scenario simulations developed by SAY\u2019s Performance team, it is possible to forecast the impact of different media strategies and optimize investments in advance. The ultimate goal is not only to maximize the efficiency of the current budget, but to<strong> create a data-driven and predictive approach to marketing decisions.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-black-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-9ea9de3557edab6b4469dff93e6affdc\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right has-small-font-size\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"content-section content vertical-padded\"\n         id=\"content-section-1872433179\"\n         style=\"background-color: #FFFFFF\">\n    <div class=\"container\">\n        <div class=\"content-section__inner centered text-primary\">\n            <div class=\"col\">\n                                            <\/div>\n\n            <div class=\"col\">\n                                    <div class=\"text typography fade-in\"><p>Do you want to implement MMM in your company?<br \/>\nContact us for a personalized consultancy!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n                \n                             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